2 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,493 sqft ·
Built 1979
· Townhouse
· Active
· 318 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,265/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$551
Tax + insurance
−$258
HOA
−$202
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$266
Net cashflow
$-11/mo
Annual
$-133/yr
Cap rate
6.17%
Cash-on-cash
-0.45%
DSCR
0.98
1% rule
1.20%
Cash to close
$29,400
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $105k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-133/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $103k (1.9% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
It's been on market 318 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Johnson El (math 14% / reading 11%, grade F, #4,167 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 597 students, 98% FRL); Hambrick Middle (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,520 of 1,662 statewide, top 92%, 1,021 students, 93% FRL); Macarthur H S (math 16% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,397 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 3,571 students, 85% FRL).
Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 318 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
CashFlowRE · CFR-C7CZ3296VNKTGB
· Data 17 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29