439 Sunlit Coral St

Ruskin, FL 33570

$279,900D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,328 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 183 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,623/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$1,264
• HOA: −$7
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $-667/mo
• Annual: $-8,002/yr
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.68%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-667 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (38.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (6.3% below list).
• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $173k (38.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Thompson Elementary (math 42% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,454 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 744 students, 69% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 770 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.2% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?