1016 West Rd

Manchester, VT 05254

$1,245,000F

4 bd · 5.0 ba · 2,710 sqft · Built 1905 · SingleFamily · Pending · 665 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,310/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,529
• Tax + insurance: −$1,904
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,535
• Net cashflow: $-2,658/mo
• Annual: $-31,892/yr
• Cap rate: 3.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.15%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $348,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $1.25M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-32k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $776k (37.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $731k (41.3% below list).
• It's been on market 665 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.10M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $731k (41.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#80 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime B; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Manchester Elementary/Middle School (math 30% / reading 45%, grade F, #112 of 192 statewide, top 58%, 392 students, 41% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 59 units permitted in Bennington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bennington County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $455k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $845k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$75k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 5.0% in Manchester — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 665 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.