550 S State St #49

Sutherlin, OR 97479

$45,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,481/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax + insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $854/mo
• Annual: $10,250/yr
• Cap rate: 29.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.35%
• DSCR: 4.62
• 1% rule: 3.29%
• Cash to close: $12,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $854 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#135 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Sutherlin SD 130 (town): math 19% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #47 of 58 in OR (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: West Sutherlin Intermediate (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #263 of 412 statewide, top 68%, 328 students, 63% FRL); Sutherlin Middle School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #96 of 128 statewide, top 78%, 289 students, 65% FRL); Sutherlin High School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #94 of 143 statewide, top 70%, 361 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 55% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 29.1% vs local median 3.5% in Sutherlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.