1528 Valencia Ave

Holly Hill, FL 32117

$264,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Active · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,045/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax + insurance: −$193
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $34/mo
• Annual: $410/yr
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.55%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $74,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($410/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (22.8% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $205k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#325 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 332 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $129k; list at $265k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.