2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
928 sqft ·
Built 2000
· Condo
· Active
· 71 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,203/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,258
Tax + insurance
−$304
HOA
−$377
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$463
Net cashflow
$-199/mo
Annual
$-2,394/yr
Cap rate
5.30%
Cash-on-cash
-3.56%
DSCR
0.84
1% rule
0.92%
Cash to close
$67,172
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $240k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-199 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (14.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (8.2% below list).
It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $205k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Shadowlawn Elementary School (math 44% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 457 students, 72% FRL); East Naples Middle School (math 56% / reading 44%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 854 students, 63% FRL); Lely High School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,504 students, 54% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Collier average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 776 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $152k; list at $240k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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· Data 12 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29