42521 N River Dr

Sweet Home, OR 97386

$250,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,968 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,987/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$214
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $45/mo
• Annual: $536/yr
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.77%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($536/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (20.5% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $199k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#233 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sweet Home SD 55 (town): math 26% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #29 of 58 in OR (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Foster Elementary School (math 24% / reading 47%, grade F, #211 of 412 statewide, top 52%, 340 students, 68% FRL); Sweet Home High School (math 22% / reading 64%, grade F, #63 of 143 statewide, top 44%, 684 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; 311 units permitted in Linn County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Linn County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $96k; list at $250k implies a 162% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.9% in Sweet Home — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.