153 E Blow St

Granby, MO 64844

$75,000B-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · Built 1920 · Other · Active · 297 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,042/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $350/mo
• Annual: $4,196/yr
• Cap rate: 11.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.98%
• DSCR: 1.89
• 1% rule: 1.39%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $350 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 297 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#462 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• East Newton County R-VI (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #248 of 324 in MO (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Granby (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #842 of 1,115 statewide, top 76%, 587 students, 65% FRL); East Newton High (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #155 of 521 statewide, top 32%, 431 students, 55% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Newton County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 297 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.