10210 Base Line #253

Rancho Cucamonga, CA 91701

$175,000A-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,776 sqft · Built 1976 · Manufactured · Active · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,401/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$714
• Net cashflow: $1,478/mo
• Annual: $17,733/yr
• Cap rate: 16.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.19%
• DSCR: 2.61
• 1% rule: 1.94%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#237 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, commute A, housing A-; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D, cost of living F.
• Alta Loma Elementary (suburban): math 58% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #162 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 63 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 2.7% in Rancho Cucamonga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.