5751 N Kolb Rd #40107

Catalina Foothills, AZ 85750

$175,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 701 sqft · Built 1996 · Condo · Active · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,737/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$319
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-156/mo
• Annual: $-1,873/yr
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.82%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-156 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $152k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (0.7% below list).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $152k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#37 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Catalina Foothills Unified District (4410) (suburban): math 55% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #15 of 249 in AZ (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ventana Vista Elementary School (math 57% / reading 73%, grade B+, #98 of 1,109 statewide, top 9%, 470 students, 10% FRL); Esperero Canyon Middle School (math 45% / reading 56%, grade C, #25 of 218 statewide, top 11%, 501 students, 13% FRL); Catalina Foothills High School (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #29 of 381 statewide, top 8%, 1,887 students, 11% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $175k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.4% in Catalina Foothills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?