6547 Sperryville Pike

Culpeper, VA 22713

$399,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,846 sqft · Built 1898 · SingleFamily · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,273/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$317
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-613/mo
• Annual: $-7,357/yr
• Cap rate: 4.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.59%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-613 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (27.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (43.0% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $227k (43.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $512 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#119 in VA, #3,736 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: commute F.
• Culpeper County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #69 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: A.G. Richardson Elementary (math 57% / reading 60%, grade B-, #576 of 1,108 statewide, top 52%, 545 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1898 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 425 units permitted in Culpeper County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Culpeper County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.4% in Culpeper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1898 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.