305 Old Denton Rd

Federalsburg, MD 21632

$89,900B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,391/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax + insurance: −$576
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $51/mo
• Annual: $609/yr
• Cap rate: 12.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.75%
• DSCR: 2.01
• 1% rule: 1.55%
• Cash to close: $25,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $51 ($609/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#266 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, health & safety A; Watch: housing C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Caroline County Public Schools (rural): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #17 of 24 in MD (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 59 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caroline County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 4.8% in Federalsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — The exterior siding is peeling and in poor condition, indicating a need for major repairs.
• Major: interior walls — The interior walls show signs of discoloration and wear, indicating a need for major repairs.
• Major: landscaping — The landscaping appears to be overgrown and in poor condition, indicating a need for major repairs.