10401 Briarbend Dr #4

Creve Coeur, MO 63146

$79,900B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 616 sqft · Built 1963 · Condo · Pending · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,234/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax + insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$283
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $164/mo
• Annual: $1,971/yr
• Cap rate: 8.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.81%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.54%
• Cash to close: $22,372

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#16 in MO, #1,519 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Ladue (suburban): math 64% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #2 of 324 in MO (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $80k implies a 196% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.7% in Creve Coeur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.