1532 Mariposa St

Richmond, CA 94804

$695,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,630 sqft · Built 1925 · MultiFamily · Pending · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,425/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,645
• Tax + insurance: −$763
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,139
• Net cashflow: $-122/mo
• Annual: $-1,466/yr
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.75%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $194,600

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $695k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-122 ($-1k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-61/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $673k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $542k (21.9% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($674k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $542k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#497 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A, health & safety B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, cost of living F.
• West Contra Costa Unified (suburban): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #993 of 1,400 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Fairmont Elementary (503 students, 45% FRL); Fred T. Korematsu Middle (681 students, 33% FRL); El Cerrito High (1,522 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 40% FRL vs 59% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 137 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 5% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $695k implies a 2857% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.7% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,425/mo this rent would consume 72% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 2065% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?