1215 Prescott Dr

Chino Valley, AZ 86323

$299,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Pending · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,292/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $56/mo
• Annual: $672/yr
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.80%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($672/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (23.6% below list).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $229k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#154 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, cost of living B; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Chino Valley Unified District (4474) (town): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #112 of 249 in AZ (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 260 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $230k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.6% in Chino Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.