8 bd · 4.0 ba ·
2,794 sqft ·
Built 1920
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 118 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,906/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,044
Tax + insurance
−$183
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$610
Net cashflow
$1,069/mo
Annual
$12,830/yr
Cap rate
13.14%
Cash-on-cash
24.46%
DSCR
2.09
1% rule
1.46%
Cash to close
$55,720
Investor read
This is a 2 × 4-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $199k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive. Per door: $535/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $199k).
It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $181k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $55k; list at $199k implies a 262% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (8.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,906/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 841% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
CashFlowRE · CFR-CC34182M40FD65
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29