2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,068 sqft ·
Built 1983
· Condo
· Active
· 97 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,292/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$414
Tax + insurance
−$269
HOA
−$340
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$271
Net cashflow
$-3/mo
Annual
$-37/yr
Cap rate
7.26%
Cash-on-cash
3.44%
DSCR
1.15
1% rule
1.64%
Cash to close
$22,120
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $79k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-37/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $78k (0.7% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $72k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $3k of equity ($546 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
Alief ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #717 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 26% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
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