5 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,936 sqft ·
Built 1987
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 10 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,030/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,029
Tax + insurance
−$349
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$636
Net cashflow
$15/mo
Annual
$183/yr
Cap rate
6.34%
Cash-on-cash
0.17%
DSCR
1.01
1% rule
0.78%
Cash to close
$108,360
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $387k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($183/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $303k (21.7% below list).
Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $303k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#435 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Holley-Navarre Primary (771 students, 41% FRL); Holley-Navarre Middle School (math 71% / reading 63%, grade A-, #80 of 571 statewide, top 14%, 830 students, 42% FRL); Navarre High School (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C-, #146 of 667 statewide, top 22%, 2,406 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 769 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $212k; list at $387k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.1% in Navarre — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($106k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-CC96TQ1X8BM38R
· Data 10 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29