2 bd · 3.0 ba ·
1,262 sqft ·
Built 1903
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 791 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$9,320/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,468
Tax + insurance
−$467
HOA
−$2,820
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,957
Net cashflow
$2,608/mo
Annual
$31,294/yr
Cap rate
17.47%
Cash-on-cash
39.92%
DSCR
2.78
1% rule
3.33%
Cash to close
$78,400
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($31k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $280k).
It's been on market 791 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $246k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $16k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent; built in 1903 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 715 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,467 units permitted in New York County in 2024 (4,463 in 5+ unit buildings).
New York County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $9,320/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($172k/yr) (locally 2256% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 791 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1903 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-CD0GHR9MPSZ64B
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29