643 5th Ave Unit 3D

New York, NY 11215

$876,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 730 sqft · Built 2025 · Condo · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,810/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,594
• Tax + insurance: −$1,460
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,010
• Net cashflow: $-2,254/mo
• Annual: $-27,046/yr
• Cap rate: 3.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.03%
• DSCR: 0.51
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $245,280

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $876k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-27k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $550k (37.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $481k (45.1% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($863k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $481k (45.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $94k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $88k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$151k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 2.6% in New York — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($186k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.