24050 Fm 95n

Garrison, TX 75946

$125,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,090 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Active · 175 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,119/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $77/mo
• Annual: $925/yr
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.64%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $77 ($925/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (10.5% below list).
• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#745 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Garrison ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #233 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Nacogdoches County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (5.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.