221 Bailey St

Arcadia, SC 29320

$144,900C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 810 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,273/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $103/mo
• Annual: $1,235/yr
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.04%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $40,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $103 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (12.1% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#232 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Spartanburg 06 (suburban): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #35 of 80 in SC (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Arcadia Elementary (math 20% / reading 18%, grade F, #505 of 597 statewide, top 85%, 373 students, 100% FRL); Fairforest Middle (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #171 of 229 statewide, top 76%, 1,054 students, 100% FRL); Dorman High (math 46% / reading 78%, grade B-, #99 of 196 statewide, top 53%, 3,808 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 48% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,129 units permitted in Spartanburg County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Spartanburg County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (5.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.9% in Arcadia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.