3130 Southern Sun Dr

Corpus Christi, TX 78415

$174,500D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,262 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 102 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,463/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$915
• Tax + insurance: −$405
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $-165/mo
• Annual: $-1,976/yr
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.04%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $48,860

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $174k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-165 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (16.2% below list).
• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#66 in TX, #2,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Corpus Christi ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #562 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 417 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,397 units permitted in Nueces County in 2024 (47 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nueces County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $174k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.6% in Corpus Christi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.