mansion 8154 Sandy Valley Estates Plan

Magnolia, OH 44643

$102,900C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $875/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$540
• Tax + insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$184
• Net cashflow: $-20/mo
• Annual: $-238/yr
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.83%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $28,812

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $103k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-238/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $100k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $88k (15.0% below list).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($711 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#401 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sandy Valley Local (rural): math 56% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #296 of 656 in OH (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 244 units permitted in Tuscarawas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tuscarawas County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.