406 Horse Creek Rd

Summit, SC 29070

$195,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1979 · Manufactured · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,856/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,027
• Tax + insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $319/mo
• Annual: $3,831/yr
• Cap rate: 8.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.98%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $54,852

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $196k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $319 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (5.2% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (5.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#145 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lexington 03 (rural): math 26% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #56 of 80 in SC (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Batesburg-Leesville Elementary School (math 35% / reading 26%, grade F, #389 of 597 statewide, top 66%, 431 students, 100% FRL); Batesburg-Leesville Middle School (math 14% / reading 29%, grade F, #176 of 229 statewide, top 77%, 456 students, 100% FRL); Batesburg-Leesville High School (math 22% / reading 72%, grade D-, #158 of 196 statewide, top 82%, 547 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 61% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 1,712 units permitted in Lexington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lexington County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $196k implies a 161% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.