138 Old Hunter Rd

Livingston Manor, NY 12758

$170,000C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1986 · Manufactured · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,769/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$359
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $147/mo
• Annual: $1,759/yr
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.69%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $147 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,173 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Livingston Manor Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #456 of 755 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.0% in Livingston Manor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.