548 Nys Route 9P

Saratoga Springs, NY 12170

$1,098,500A-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,197 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $20,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,761
• Tax + insurance: −$1,831
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,200
• Net cashflow: $8,209/mo
• Annual: $98,502/yr
• Cap rate: 15.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.02%
• DSCR: 2.42
• 1% rule: 1.82%
• Cash to close: $307,580

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.10M. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($99k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.10M).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.08M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.08M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $117k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $110k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#83 in NY, #1,284 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F.
• Stillwater Central School District (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #238 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $308k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$189k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 2.0% in Saratoga Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.