20 Lighthouse Ln

Conway, NH 03860

$200,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Built 2006 · Manufactured · Active · 92 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,344/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$246
• HOA: −$619
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-62/mo
• Annual: $-747/yr
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.33%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-747/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (5.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#33 in NH, #4,690 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Conway School District (rural): math 28% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #73 of 98 in NH (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 357 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carroll County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.0% in Conway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.