7262 Barragan Rd

San Carlos Park, FL 33967

$499,900D+

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,800 sqft · Built 1975 · MultiFamily · Active · 384 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,646/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax + insurance: −$978
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$976
• Net cashflow: $71/mo
• Annual: $855/yr
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.27%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $139,972

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3.0-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $500k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $71 ($855/yr) — positive. Per door: $36/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $465k (7.1% below list).
• It's been on market 384 days — a 12% lower offer ($440k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $440k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#662 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.7%/yr); 226 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $200k; list at $500k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.4% in San Carlos Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,646/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 491% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 384 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?