4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,793 sqft ·
Built 2000
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 172 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,984/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,835
Tax + insurance
−$469
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$837
Net cashflow
$844/mo
Annual
$10,124/yr
Cap rate
9.61%
Cash-on-cash
11.86%
DSCR
1.53
1% rule
1.14%
Cash to close
$98,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $844 ($10k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $350k).
It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $308k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#95 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment D-.
Calcasieu Parish (other): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #29 of 98 in LA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.1%/yr); 456 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,298 units permitted in Calcasieu Parish in 2024 (526 in 5+ unit buildings).
Calcasieu County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $223k; list at $350k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $98k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.3% in Lake Charles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,984/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) (locally 1328% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-CFTB8TCZWC0DA2
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29