537 Stone Placa Trl

Pattison, TX 77423

$254,990D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,566 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 110 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,009/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax + insurance: −$180
• HOA: −$83
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-13/mo
• Annual: $-161/yr
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.23%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $71,397

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $255k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-161/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (21.2% below list).
• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $201k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#876 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 997 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.4% in Pattison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.