1536 John Adams Ct

Mays Landing, NJ 08330

$286,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,494 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Active · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,521/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,500
• Tax + insurance: −$477
• HOA: −$431
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $-416/mo
• Annual: $-4,995/yr
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.24%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $80,080

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $286k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-416 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (21.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (11.9% below list).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $226k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#214 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, health & safety B+; Watch: commute C-, cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Hamilton Township School District (suburban): math 9% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #401 of 472 in NJ (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 79% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.