35045 Cynthia Ave

Zephyrhills West, FL 33541

$118,500C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 408 sqft · Built 1992 · Manufactured · Active · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,531/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$621
• Tax + insurance: −$201
• HOA: −$120
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $267/mo
• Annual: $3,207/yr
• Cap rate: 9.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.67%
• DSCR: 1.43
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $33,180

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $118k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $267 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $118k).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $819 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#772 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $118k implies a 197% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.