3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,175 sqft ·
Built 2006
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 23 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,994/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,049
Tax + insurance
−$364
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$419
Net cashflow
$163/mo
Annual
$1,957/yr
Cap rate
7.27%
Cash-on-cash
3.50%
DSCR
1.16
1% rule
1.00%
Cash to close
$56,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (0.3% below list).
It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, employment F.
Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Gallegos El (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 396 students, 99% FRL); Garcia Middle (math 17% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 893 students, 87% FRL); Rivera Early College H S (math 12% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 2,254 students, 84% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 413 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 5.0% in Brownsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-CG97TZ51D7NDRM
· Data 6 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29