2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
930 sqft ·
Built 1984
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 380 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,601/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$726
Tax + insurance
−$368
HOA
−$276
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$336
Net cashflow
$-105/mo
Annual
$-1,260/yr
Cap rate
5.96%
Cash-on-cash
-1.19%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
1.16%
Cash to close
$38,780
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-105 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (13.4% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
It's been on market 380 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $120k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $958 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#252 in FL, #3,975 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Charlotte (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #22 of 73 in FL (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Myakka River Elementary School (math 65% / reading 60%, grade B, #601 of 2,144 statewide, top 28%, 608 students, 51% FRL); L. A. Ainger Middle School (math 65% / reading 53%, grade B, #144 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 720 students, 40% FRL); Lemon Bay High School (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,360 students, 28% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 2198 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,585 units permitted in Charlotte County in 2024 (703 in 5+ unit buildings).
Charlotte County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $72k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $95k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in North Port — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 380 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
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· Data 12 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29