803 N Donley Ave

Tulia, TX 79088

$54,500C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,005 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $599/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$286
• Tax + insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$126
• Net cashflow: $78/mo
• Annual: $935/yr
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.13%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $15,260

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $54k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($935/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($599 rent vs $54k).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $51k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($377 loan paydown + $685 appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,297 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Tulia ISD (town): math 22% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #768 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.
• Swisher County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.