821 Bronx River Rd Unit 5J

Yonkers, NY 10708

$180,000B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built 1952 · Condo · Pending · 120 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,518/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$366
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $679/mo
• Annual: $8,143/yr
• Cap rate: 11.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.74%
• DSCR: 1.79
• 1% rule: 1.40%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $679 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $164k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#528 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A, commute B; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Yonkers City School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #413 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Yonkers Early Childhood Academy (327 students, 72% FRL); Yonkers Middle School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #587 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 601 students, 88% FRL); Yonkers High School (math 92% / reading 88%, grade A+, #238 of 1,100 statewide, top 23%, 1,060 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 64% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 246 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $149k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 5.4% in Yonkers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.