12193 Lookout Loop Unit F3-22

Truckee, CA 96161-0000

$25,000D+

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,985 sqft · Built — · Timeshare · Active · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,110/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax + insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$869
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,913
• Net cashflow: $6,155/mo
• Annual: $73,860/yr
• Cap rate: 301.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1055.14%
• DSCR: 47.95
• 1% rule: 36.44%
• Cash to close: $7,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath timeshare listed at $25k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($74k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $25k).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $24k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $923 of equity ($173 loan paydown + $750 appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#697 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Tahoe-Truckee Unified (town): math 44% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #136 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $5k; list at $25k implies a 376% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 301.7% vs local median 2.1% in Truckee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.