41179 Marsh Ln

Gonzales, LA 70737

$314,900D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,991 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Pending · 155 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,508/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax + insurance: −$416
• HOA: −$35
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-121/mo
• Annual: $-1,455/yr
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.65%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $88,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-121 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (20.3% below list).
• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $251k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#135 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sorrento Primary School (math 42% / reading 49%, grade D-, #169 of 646 statewide, top 27%, 627 students, 63% FRL); St. Amant Middle School (math 35% / reading 58%, grade D+, #41 of 218 statewide, top 19%, 556 students, 50% FRL); St. Amant High School (math 63% / reading 67%, grade B, #12 of 265 statewide, top 4%, 2,411 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 571 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.5% in Gonzales — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?