32443 Memory Ln

Leesburg, FL 34788

$295,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Pending · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,127/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax + insurance: −$446
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-312/mo
• Annual: $-3,746/yr
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.53%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $82,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $295k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-312 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (18.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (27.9% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $213k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#751 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Treadway Elementary School (math 53% / reading 48%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 879 students, 66% FRL); Tavares Middle School (math 43% / reading 40%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 1,070 students, 58% FRL); Tavares High School (math 32% / reading 40%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,507 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 288 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $108k; list at $295k implies a 174% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,127/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 406% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.