89510 Highway 101 #23

Heceta Beach, OR 97439

$44,000B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Pending · 281 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,714/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$231
• Tax + insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $1,050/mo
• Annual: $12,602/yr
• Cap rate: 34.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 102.29%
• DSCR: 5.55
• 1% rule: 3.90%
• Cash to close: $12,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $44k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $44k).
• It's been on market 281 days — a 12% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $39k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($304 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Siuslaw SD 97J (town): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #106 of 183 in OR (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $91k (67%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 34.9% vs local median 1.9% in Heceta Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 281 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.