1024 Pebble Crk

Mount Pleasant, MI 48858

$81,999B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,478 sqft · Built 2021 · Land · Pending · 243 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,364/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$430
• Tax + insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $511/mo
• Annual: $6,131/yr
• Cap rate: 13.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.70%
• DSCR: 2.19
• 1% rule: 1.66%
• Cash to close: $22,960

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $82k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $511 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• It's been on market 243 days — a 12% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $72k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $567 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#55 in MI, #1,063 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment F.
• Mt. Pleasant City School District (town): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #229 of 540 in MI (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.9%/yr); 249 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 72 units permitted in Isabella County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Isabella County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 3.4% in Mount Pleasant — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 243 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.