2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,351 sqft ·
Built 2005
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 705 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,153/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$708
Tax + insurance
−$267
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$452
Net cashflow
$727/mo
Annual
$8,719/yr
Cap rate
12.75%
Cash-on-cash
23.07%
DSCR
2.03
1% rule
1.60%
Cash to close
$37,800
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $727 ($9k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
It's been on market 705 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#163 in FL, #2,445 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F.
St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Manatee Academy K-8 (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 1,664 students, 65% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
Market conditions: 296 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 4.3% in Vero Beach South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 705 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-CKYT187GH3XY39
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29