100 Red River Dr

Adrian, MI 49221

$89,900B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,531/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $588/mo
• Annual: $7,057/yr
• Cap rate: 14.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.04%
• DSCR: 2.25
• 1% rule: 1.70%
• Cash to close: $25,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $588 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#342 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
• Adrian School District (town): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #370 of 540 in MI (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #814 of 1,397 statewide, top 61%, 319 students, 69% FRL); Springbrook Middle School (math 29% / reading 38%, grade F, #303 of 493 statewide, top 62%, 641 students, 71% FRL); Adrian High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #405 of 713 statewide, top 59%, 781 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Lenawee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lenawee County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 5.6% in Adrian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.