20601 Patrick Henry Hwy

Amelia Court House, VA 23083

$260,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,524 sqft · Built 1964 · SingleFamily · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,189/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $-607/mo
• Annual: $-7,280/yr
• Cap rate: 3.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.00%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.46%
• Cash to close: $72,800

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-607 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (41.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (54.3% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (54.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#329 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing D, amenities F, commute F.
• Amelia County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #83 of 131 in VA (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Amelia County Elementary (math 46% / reading 60%, grade C, #689 of 1,108 statewide, top 63%, 760 students, 85% FRL); Amelia County Middle (math 37% / reading 61%, grade C-, #238 of 342 statewide, top 71%, 365 students, 84% FRL); Amelia County High (math 57% / reading 82%, grade B, #159 of 319 statewide, top 53%, 538 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 42% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Amelia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Amelia County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 13 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.5% in Amelia Court House — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.