3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,810 sqft ·
Built 1968
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 65 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,500/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$863
Tax + insurance
−$419
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$525
Net cashflow
$694/mo
Annual
$8,322/yr
Cap rate
11.35%
Cash-on-cash
18.07%
DSCR
1.80
1% rule
1.52%
Cash to close
$46,060
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $164k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $694 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $164k).
It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#345 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools D.
Burkburnett ISD (town): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #529 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 231 units permitted in Wichita County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
Wichita County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-CN3BJ3B646TYXG
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29