33 Shawondassee Dr

Mystic, CT 06378

$399,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Active · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,238/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$442
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$680
• Net cashflow: $23/mo
• Annual: $276/yr
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.25%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($276/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $324k (18.9% below list).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($375k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $324k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#11 in CT, #1,266 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Stonington School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #43 of 153 in CT (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Deans Mill School (math 72% / reading 74%, grade A, #58 of 553 statewide, top 11%, 451 students, 12% FRL); Stonington Middle School (math 51% / reading 71%, grade B+, #41 of 175 statewide, top 25%, 379 students, 26% FRL); Stonington High School (math 47% / reading 77%, grade B-, #40 of 194 statewide, top 21%, 585 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 487 units permitted in Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 10 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $237k; list at $399k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 1.7% in Mystic — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.