14192 Backbone Rd

Eden, MD 21822

$116,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 2007 · Manufactured · Active · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,375/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $303/mo
• Annual: $3,632/yr
• Cap rate: 9.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.18%
• DSCR: 1.50
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $32,480

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $116k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $303 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $116k).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($802 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#443 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Somerset County Public Schools (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #22 of 24 in MD (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Somerset County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $10; list at $116k implies a 1159900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.