1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
427 sqft ·
Built 1959
· Condo
· Active
· 108 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,024/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$209
Tax + insurance
−$66
HOA
−$379
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$215
Net cashflow
$154/mo
Annual
$1,846/yr
Cap rate
10.92%
Cash-on-cash
16.53%
DSCR
1.74
1% rule
2.57%
Cash to close
$11,172
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $40k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $36k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $541 of equity ($276 loan paydown + $265 appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.2%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-CNECZ50N47F08Z
· Data 3 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29