3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,650 sqft ·
Built 1900
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 324 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,250/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$656
Tax + insurance
−$377
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$262
Net cashflow
$-45/mo
Annual
$-541/yr
Cap rate
5.86%
Cash-on-cash
-1.55%
DSCR
0.93
1% rule
1.00%
Cash to close
$35,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-541/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (6.4% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
It's been on market 324 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
Sidney Central School District (town): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #462 of 590 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 66 units permitted in Delaware County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Delaware County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
5 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $12k; list at $125k implies a 942% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 324 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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